The killing of Russia's handpicked president in Chechnya, Akhmad Kadyrov, should not have come as a huge surprise. He himself said that he had lost count of the attempts on his life. Over the past 10 years, the barrel-chested Islamic cleric went from mufti of Chechnya to separatist warlord and finally, in the eyes of many of his former allies, to a Russian quisling. He was elected president last October in a tainted process staged by Moscow, and has ruled with the aid of a particularly nasty militia led by his son, Ramzan.

The assassination was a devastating blow to President Vladimir Putin's pacification plans for the war-devastated province, which centered on Kadyrov. On a lightning visit to the Chechen capital of Grozny on Tuesday, Putin bravely pledged more police and more economic aid. But prospects for a meaningful peace now seemed even bleaker.

The Chechen quagmire has elements not unfamiliar in Washington and the West. The tougher Russia has been, the more it has alienated moderates and inflamed militants. Putin has sought to deflect any criticism of the Russian military's atrocities by invoking the global war on terrorism.

Sadly, he has gotten away with it - Chechnya has never developed into a serious diplomatic problem for Moscow, at least in the United States. In Russia, Putin's tough line is even something of a political asset; at the least, most Russians are content to accept his unfounded assurances that the situation in Chechnya is "normalizing."

Now, without Kadyrov, that won't be so easy.

The Kremlin will have to organize (and manipulate, no doubt) another election, but there aren't any obvious candidates for Moscow to back, with the possible exception of the highly unpopular Ramzan Kadyrov. Putin may be tempted to declare direct presidential rule over the war-torn province, or to appoint a proconsul there. It's difficult to see what that would accomplish.

The only option that carries any measure of hope of ending the bloodletting is for Putin to open talks with Aslan Maskhadov, the former Chechen president who is now hiding out in the southern mountains. The odds are admittedly long. Putin has declared Maskhadov a wanted rebel, and the former president has bitter enemies among Chechen warlords and Islamists. Yet Maskhadov played a central role in the first Chechen war against Russia - and in the peace negotiations that ended it. He was then elected president in January 1997 in the last election that had a semblance of legitimacy.

Maskhkadov's fortunes fell when he failed to gain control over Chechen warlords, allowing Chechnya to slide into a new war. Yet he is the only Chechen who combines the credentials of an elected leader, anti-Russian resistance, and opposition to radical Islam. And many Chechens may be sufficiently sick of the war to rally around him.