Afghanistan's landmark parliamentary and provincial elections on September 18 look set to be accompanied by a high risk of terror attacks, the head of the EU's election observer mission, Emma Bonino, has warned. Speaking to Adnkronos International (AKI) about her security concerns, the former European Humanitarian Aid Commissioner, described the elections - which will involve some 6,000 candidates and nine million voters - as a "miracle", but one which represents a target for those who want to obstruct the democratic process. "I don't rule out the fact that the Afghan elections could represent an occasion for Islamic extremists to organise a huge attack," she said. "With the recent tragic events, from London to Sharm el-Shiekh, they have shown us that they can strike wherever they want to. Therefore I fear that something similar will happen here, we must always keep that in mind. Possibly an attack on the United Nations headquarters." From Kabul, where Italy will officially assume command of the International Security Assistance Force on Thursday, in the presence of foreign minister Gianfranco Fini, Bonino - who is Italian herself - told AKI of "intimidation of a violent kind" in the dealings with various candidates, and she does not exclude Afghanistan being turned into a stage for Islamic terrorists."
On one hand the 10,000 troops present represent "an important deterrant", the European parliamentarian believes, but on the other, the "security threat, without a proper police force, with commanders-turned-drug traffickers and the resumption of al-Qaeda terrorists or extremists infiltrating Afghanistan from countries like Pakistan" remains high. The latter worries Bonino most, especially in two northern regions, those of Kudar and Uristan, not reached by the 60 long-term electoral observers who arrived in Kabul on Tuesday.
Completing the picture is the difficulty in verifying news published or broadcast by the media. For example, Bonino says: "the newspapers report the news of the discovery of 2,000 missiles, but here we haven't had confirmation. We do know, however, of three candidates killed on May 11, June 22 and July 29, but no-one talks about that." As well as the communication problems, threats of attacks, political obstacles posed by the kaleidoscope of tribal identities and unions in the country, she is also particularly worried that those going to vote have unrealistically high expectations that the elections will truly change the country.
"Yes the expectations are very high. Possibly too high," explained Bonino, pointing out that one million 500,000 more people have registered to vote than in the presidential elections in October 2004. Around nine million Afghans should therefore turn out to choose between the 6,000 candidates (10 percent of whom are women, who have been allocated 68 seats in parliament out of a total of 239) in elections being held both for the parliament and the provincial councils.
"The desire for change is very strong and this makes me think that the extremists will not be able to win the war," Bonino continues, "but we must keep in mind that these elections are only a step towards change. Others will be needed."
Emma Bonino has many examples of the enormous strength the candidates are displaying as the elections approach: like the 35-year-old, unmarried female candidate supported by her whole family, forced to carry out a high-profile electoral campaign (which should officially begin on August 17) to prove that she isn't dead, as the Taliban has declared. Or like the other candidate, who Bonino often refers to, who has decided to go in person to visit her potential voters, as her local TV has a coverage of only 21 kilometres, even though 75 per cent of the bridges were destroyed by the recent floods. To the logistical difficulties the territory represents, she then adds the difficulties linked to the short supply of funds. "The United Nations have been clear," the head of the EU's observer mission points out. "Tens of millions of the dollars promised never arrived. For security reasons and because of the complexity of producing the material needed for the vote, another 20 million euros are now needed, in addition to the initial amount expected." Italy has already responded to this need, she said, deciding to "increase its contribution by a million euros."
"Now pressure needs to be put on other European countries," Bonino continues, "to fill the major gap that has opened up and to fill a real void, keeping promises, which if not kept, risk creating a loss of faith" among the Afghan people. "Compared to the elections held a year ago it is all much more difficult," Bonino says. "The electoral system is more complicated, with ballot papers which are basically long sheets printed in Austria and England, the increasingly insistent threats, the challenge of finding the Pakistan-produced electoral cabins... These elections will be a miracle, but I believe in them. I think they will work."